Fixed-rate mortgages are rising: what do the SNB, the BIS and the experts say?

How much have fixed-rate mortgages risen in 2026?

By 0.26 to 0.40 percentage points since the low at the beginning of March 2026, depending on the term. MoneyPark evaluates the indicative rates of around 100 lenders for this: the ten-year fixed-rate mortgage cost 1.80% on 6 March and 2.06% on 18 September. At the end of 2025 it had already stood at 2.00%; the decline in spring was an interim low.

Average indicative rates according to MoneyPark. Negotiated rates are lower: the best rates for ten years stood at 1.60% on 18 September.

The Swiss National Bank’s statistics point the same way: in July 2026 the banks’ indicative rate for ten-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.05%, in May 2025 it was 1.79%. Internationally the rise remains small. Since 2021 the Swiss mortgage rate indicator has risen by 0.70 percentage points, the German indicator by 2.69 and the US indicator by 3.64 points (MoneyPark, based on data from the SNB, the ECB and Freddie Mac).

Why are fixed-rate mortgages rising although the policy rate is 0%?

Because a fixed-rate mortgage does not depend on today’s policy rate but on the capital market rate for the same term. A bank that lends you money for ten years at a fixed rate hedges itself for ten years. What counts are the Swiss franc swap rates and the yields on Swiss government bonds (Bundesobligationen). They contain the policy rates expected over the coming years, the expected inflation and a term premium for the risk of the long commitment. The SARON mortgage, by contrast, follows the policy rate, which is why it stayed unchanged.

That is exactly what happened in 2026. Ten-year Swiss government bonds yielded around 0.2% at the beginning of March and 0.65% on 25 September (SNB data). SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said on 24 September that longer-term interest rates in Switzerland had risen somewhat, but less strongly than in the large currency areas, where the central banks had tightened: policy rates had been raised in both the euro area and the United States. The original wording is quoted in the German version of this guide (in German).

Added to this are the expectations about the SNB itself. UBS expects two rate increases, in March and in June 2027, and notes that the capital markets have already priced them in (as at 24 September 2026). Zürcher Kantonalbank expects a policy rate of 0.75% on a one-year horizon (forecast as at April 2026). MoneyPark speaks of a new normal for interest rates: well below the international level, but permanently above the lows seen before 2022.

What did the SNB decide on 24 September 2026?

The Swiss National Bank is leaving its policy rate at 0%, unchanged since June 2025. Inflation rose from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August, mainly because of higher prices for petroleum products. The SNB therefore raised its inflation forecast slightly; it remains within the range of price stability of 0 to 2%.

The Swiss franc has lost around 3% in trade-weighted terms since June. On the outlook, the SNB writes that uncertainty about its baseline scenario remains high, above all because of the situation in the Middle East. SARON, the money market rate to which SARON mortgages are tied, stood at −0.04% on 24 September.

How does the SNB assess the Swiss property market?

As vulnerable. In its Financial Stability Report of 2 July 2026 the SNB states that the vulnerabilities in the Swiss residential property market persist, and that mortgage debt remains high, which points to elevated affordability risks for borrowers in general. Prices are high relative to established valuation metrics, it says, driven by strong demand, scarce supply and low interest rates.

Investment properties are the most sensitive. The SNB’s own calculation: if the required net yield rises from 3% to 4%, it takes either 33% more rental income or 25% lower prices. Since 30 September 2022 banks have been subject to a countercyclical capital buffer of 2.5% on mortgages for residential property in Switzerland, the legal maximum. Vice Chairman Antoine Martin put a higher ceiling up for discussion at the University of Basel on 26 August 2026, but stressed that in the SNB’s assessment the buffer should not be raised at present.

What is the BIS in Basel, and what does it say about interest rates?

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is the bank of the central banks: founded in 1930 and based in Basel ever since, it is owned by 63 central banks that together represent around 95% of world economic output. It hosts the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which sets the capital standards for banks worldwide. These rules, known as Basel III, also determine how much capital a Swiss bank must hold against your mortgage.

Its message in 2026 concerns long-term interest rates. In its Annual Economic Report of 28 June 2026 the BIS warns that near-record government debt and higher interest rates are weighing on public finances. Government bond yields are well above their pandemic lows, it says, reflecting higher real rates and term premia. Its Quarterly Review of 14 September 2026 records that government bond yields rose, especially at longer maturities: between June and early September ten-year yields climbed by 0.31 percentage points in the United States and by 0.34 on German government bonds.

The BIS mentions Switzerland explicitly on private debt, which it says has risen in small open economies such as Sweden and Switzerland. The report contains no warning of its own about the Swiss property market. Its price statistics do show, however, how clearly Switzerland runs against the trend: residential property here became 3.5% more expensive in nominal terms in the second quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier, while house prices worldwide fell by 1.2% in real terms in the first quarter.

Basel III final has applied in Switzerland since 1 January 2025. For owner-occupied homes the banks’ capital requirements generally fall; for investment properties they rise. According to FINMA, the risk weights for investment properties with higher loan-to-value ratios will now be markedly higher than before.

What do UBS, the IMF and FINMA say about the Swiss property market?

The tenor: prices are high, the supervisor urges caution on affordability, and rising financing costs are likely to slow the price increase. UBS expects a broad price correction only in a stagflation scenario with persistently elevated unemployment.

What does this mean for property in the canton of Zug?

Zug remains a market with very scarce supply. According to the study Immobilienmarkt 2025 by Zuger Kantonalbank (October 2025), transaction prices for mid-range apartments rose by 7.0% between the second quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025. In the city of Zug a standard-specification apartment costs more than CHF 20,000 per square metre. Only 1.6% of the stock was on the market, compared with 4.4% nationally; the average listing time was under 40 days, and in no other canton are apartments sold faster. Owning a home was around 20% cheaper in use than renting, supported by the low level of interest rates.

It is precisely this advantage that shrinks when interest rates rise, though slowly. An example with round numbers: a mortgage of CHF 1 million costs CHF 18,000 in interest a year at 1.80% and CHF 20,600 at 2.06%, that is around CHF 217 more per month. Whether someone can afford a property, however, is not tested by the banks with the current rate but with an imputed interest rate of generally 5% (affordability calculator). The latest rise therefore barely narrows the circle of buyers.

What this means for your sale

For sellers in the canton of Zug this means three things above all:

• Demand remains; the price surge is flattening. Because the banks calculate affordability at around 5%, a few tenths of a percentage point more interest cost the market hardly any buyers. The experts, however, do not expect the strong price jumps of the past two years to continue. Anyone selling therefore does better to start with a realistic, documented asking price instead of waiting for further increases.
• Your own fixed-rate mortgage may be cheaper to redeem. The early repayment penalty corresponds to the difference between your agreed interest rate and the rate at which the bank can reinvest the money for the remaining term (Swiss Banking Ombudsman). When rates rise, this difference becomes smaller. Have your bank calculate the redemption amount early, or clarify whether the buyer can take over the mortgage. The other costs are set out in What does it cost to sell a house in the canton of Zug?
• Investment properties react most strongly. Their value depends directly on the required yield, and that rises with long-term interest rates. Here a valuation by the capitalised earnings value is worthwhile, as the buyer’s bank will also carry one out (How is the value of my property calculated?).

We at Rudat AG in Baar value with the IAZI/CIFI models that Swiss banks also use. Your asking price therefore rests on the same basis as the calculation of the buyer’s bank. A free assessment is available at Property valuation; how we sell is described at Selling property in the canton of Zug. Conrad Rudat is personally available to you: About us and contact.

This article does not replace financial, tax or legal advice. The interest rates quoted are averages; your offer depends on the bank, the loan-to-value ratio and affordability.

Sources

This guide does not replace tax or legal advice. The assessment of your municipality is decisive.